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- Can the refrigerant boom of 2019 last?
- date： 2019-3-6 hits：1014
- What are the reasons behind refrigerants going all the way up in 2018? What will the refrigerant market look like in 2019?
The high pressure environmental protection policy causes the material supply tight
R22 prices have been rising since the first half of 2018, with prices at high levels. The overall inventory of R32 market is low, domestic demand and export market demand remain stable, and the inventory of manufacturers has increased to a certain extent. The overall operating load of the device of R134a production enterprise remained stable. The supply of R410a market is relatively high, and most merchants keep purchasing on demand. R125 production enterprise device operating load in the upper level, generally maintain low inventory operation.
Many enterprises said that the refrigerant supply is still tight, the market supply is not enough, mainly because of environmental protection policies, resulting in a large number of enterprises had to cut production or production.
Why environmental protection will have a greater impact on refrigerant enterprises? Because a large number of fluoride refrigerants by-product during the production of hydrochloric acid, the byproduct hydrochloric acid treatment is difficult, usually as a low-end hydrochloric acid digestion, sold to the downstream enterprises such as reform of environmental regulation to strengthen and supply side factors, downstream enterprise starts falling by-product hydrochloric acid demand, refrigerant caused waste acid waste acid is difficult to handle, ZhangKu, companies are forced to reduce the work load caused by a lack of supply.
According to the data, the price of fluorite in 2018 surged 42.20%, from 2,555 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 3,633.33 yuan per ton at the end of the year, up as much as 42.20%. Fluorite prices hit a record high at the end of 2018, and the fluorine chemical industry is finally enjoying a busy sales season after years of recession. Take R22 as an example. It climbed from 89,000 tons in 2016 to around 23,000 tons.
In 2018, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market was depressed at first and then increased. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market was declining in the first half of the year, but the price of hydrofluoric acid market continued to rise in the second half of the year. In summary, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 12958.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and 14125 yuan/ton at the end of the year, with an annual increase of 9.00%. The highest price of the year appeared in 15475 yuan/ton on February 10, and the lowest price of the year appeared in 9116.67 yuan/ton on May 18, with the maximum amplitude of 41.09%.
At the same time, environmental protection as a double-edged sword, some of the scale, equipment, qualified enterprises ushered in the spring.
Rationed refrigerants are in short supply
According to the provisions of the Montreal agreement, the second generation of refrigerant will be completely eliminated, and according to the developed countries and developing countries made different elimination schedule: developed countries in 1996 began to freeze the consumption base, given a 24-year buffer period, will be completely eliminated in 2020 the use of the second generation; The process of elimination of developing countries is slightly slower than that of developed countries. Production and consumption must be frozen in 2013, cut from 2015, with a 17-year buffer period, and phased out entirely by 2030. Since 2013, China has implemented a quota policy for the consumption and production of the second-generation HCFCs refrigerant, which has been cut from 308,000 tons in 2013 to 274,000 tons in 2015. By 2020, there will be about 200,000 tons left, and by 2030, it will be completely eliminated.
Although the ODP value of the third-generation refrigerant is 0, it still has a high GWP value, which will greatly accelerate global warming and will be eliminated. On October 10, 2016, the 28th conference of the parties to the Montreal protocol adopted an amendment on HFCS reduction. According to the agreement, developed countries and developing countries have different economic development plans, and China has promised to gradually reduce the HFCs from 2024.
China, a major player in the Montreal protocol, will need to phase out ODS substances early. However, in recent years, while the demand of downstream air-conditioning enterprises has increased, the output of cold air conditioners in 2018 increased by 13.1% year-on-year. Sales increased by 13.5 percent year-on-year. Although the growth rate narrowed considerably compared with the cold year of 2017, it still maintained a double-digit growth rate. From the perspective of household air conditioners, the refrigerants are mainly R22, R32 and R410A. This year, due to the shortage of cooling oil for R410A and R32 air conditioners, the proportion of R22 models is relatively high. However, R22 is a product that has entered the phase-out period, and the quota supply will gradually increase the proportion of R32 and R410A. Third generation refrigerant is being used in great quantities again, cause third generation product unusual strain.
Where does 2019 stand: will refrigerant remain high
While refrigerants lead the way in 2018, how much longer can they continue? Relevant authorities pointed out that in 2019, environmental pressure is still high, fluorite, hydrofluoric acid and other raw materials prices will remain high. In addition, through the environmental protection management in recent years, non-compliant production enterprises were shut down or rectification, leaving the production of enterprises will be more standardized and stable. Moreover, R22 belongs to the HCFC refrigerant category, with the phase-out process, the quota will be reduced by another 25% by 2020; However, the HFC refrigerant phase-out policy takes 2020-2022 as the benchmark year, and the domestic production capacity of R32 and R125 will be doubled in 2019. -
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